“Do you want to
speak to the man in charge or the woman who knows what’s going on?” As global pandemic
responses unfolded, it became apparent that female led countries fared best. As
a result of Jacinda Ardern’s elimination strategy, New Zealand recorded less
deaths by far (26) than any other developed country with the economy outperforming
the OECD average.
I
wanted to document what it’s like to live in a country where the person in
charge was a woman who knew what she was doing. Unfortunately, New Zealand
doesn’t count “wordsmith” as essential work, so I headed for the Isle of Man,
where the man in charge had achieved similar results. The country, like New
Zealand, had used its island status to eliminate Covid, allowing citizens to
avoid prolonged lockdowns and live relatively normal lives.
Within
weeks, I was running around the island bribing pharmacists (unsuccessfully) for
LFTs. The single mother of a disabled child needed them because her other child
caught Covid and she was too frightened to go out. She emailed me, a stranger
she heard on the radio, because she didn’t know how to live with a virus
capable of killing her child.
What
went wrong? In June, Chief Minister, Howard Quayle, Health Minister, David Ashford
and the Council of Ministers (CoMin), opened the borders too soon and in an
inexplicable act of self harm, unleashed Delta, a highly transmissible, vaccine
escaping variant, onto a Covid free island. Why? The economy, stupid. Except,
by July, local businesses surveyed by the Chamber of
Commerce reported an 80% reduction in income compared to the same time
last year. Some described that period as 'the worst they've experienced during
the pandemic'.
With
no mitigations in place, Covid spread like wildfire collapsing the test and
trace system. Hundreds were in isolation. Mr Ashford’s solution? Scrap isolation,
which accelerated spread. The health system was hit with bed shortages, visitor
restrictions and cancelled operations.
Why would the men in charge sabotage their own legacy?
Minutes
from a Public Accounts Committee meeting published in August answered that
question: It wasn’t their legacy. The committee took evidence from the Island’s
Medical Director, turned reluctant whistle-blower, Dr Rosalind Ranson. She
testified
that Howard Quayle, David Ashford and Director of Public Health, Dr Ewart, were
wedded to following UK strategy in March. Dr Ranson described her battle to
adopt an island specific approach, a task reportedly thwarted by the Department
for Health and Social Care’s CEO, Kathryn Magson who allegedly forbade Dr
Ranson from liaising directly with ministers. Ms Magson gave medical briefings
to the Council of Ministers (CoMin) herself, despite being unqualified (medically) to do
so.
Newly
appointed, Dr Ranson set up a Clinical Advisory Group with her top medics and assessed
the risks posed by Covid, producing systems and protocols underpinned by clinical
modelling. Based on that data, Dr Ranson identified the need to build on-island
oxygen capability, requisitioning private beds and procuring fit for purpose
PPE, achievements that Mr Quayle recently took credit for in UK media
interviews. He also boasts about the island’s world-class test and trace system
which was established from scratch by Island genomicist, Dr Rachel Glover, who
was rewarded by being side-lined.
It’s
noteworthy that the women who masterminded one of the world’s most successful
pandemic responses have been ostracised by men who unashamedly claim their accomplishments
as their own.
Based
on her modelling, Dr Ranson knew that if the island blindly followed UK policy,
which on 13th March involved not testing, the island’s one hospital would become
overwhelmed. At that point Dr Ranson first advised Minister Ashford and Ms
Magson to close the borders. On 16 March, Dr Ranson prepared a presentation for
the Council of Ministers (CoMin) which she sent to Ms Magson to communicate, stressing
the need for restrictions.
On
24 March, when asked at a presser why he hadn’t locked down, Mr Quayle replied,
“We take advice from our medical experts”. Concerned, Dr Ranson asked Ms Magson
if she had relayed her advice to Mr Quayle. She didn’t reply. That question
must be answered but notwithstanding that, why didn’t Mr Quayle, Mr Ashford or
CoMin solicit the advice of the highly qualified medical director directly? With the exception of Julie Edge (who was one of only 5 MHKs with the integrity & courage to vote against unmitigated border opening), why aren't MHKs clamouring for an investigation into this?
On
25th March, Dr Ranson sent Ms Magson an email entitled ‘Lockdown now’. In it
she urged Ms Magson to communicate the medical group’s advice: “lockdown in the
strongest possible terms.’ Mr Quayle eventually locked down on March 27th. Had
he acted sooner, avoidable deaths might have been averted.
In
January, Ms Magson informed Dr Ranson that the Manx government was following UK
policy. The systems that Dr Ranson established were reportedly dismantled. Since
then, ministers have taken Dr Ewart’s advice which appears to endorse the UK's reckless trajectory.
Before the borders
opened, the average positivity rate was circa 0.31% of tests. The 3 day average
now is around 11.43% despite significantly reduced testing and in mid-late
July, the island had the highest incidence of Covid worldwide. Last week,
Covid outbreaks occurred in a care home having previously loosened visitor
restrictions. The “dodgy” dashboard numbers
don’t tally, but piecing together information from various sources, an
estimated 20 people have died from Covid since borders opened.
David
Ashford suggested I represent the views of the Great Barrington Group (GBD):
for “balance”. That’s like giving equal weight to climate change deniers when
writing about global warming. It implies there’s no scientific consensus. There
is. The GBD is a fringe group that has lobbied for “unscientific”, “unethical”,
herd immunity through mass infection. The risk that COVID poses is not a matter
of opinion, it’s a scientific fact.
Anti-Vaxxers
objected to my criticism of David Ashford and targeted me relentlessly with
racist and misogynistic abuse. When one messaged, “I know where you live”, I
knew he probably did, so on a misty Manx morning, I took the boat and left the
beautiful island, tragically marred by political ineptitude and gross
negligence.
Thursday’s elections provide Manx citizens the chance
to give self-aggrandising incompetent men their marching orders and to put the
women who know what they’re doing in charge. Every vote counts. Aigh vie
caarjyn