Luke O'Neill declares the pandemic's over...Again. Is he right this time? No

 “The pandemic’s over”! declared Professor Luke O’Neill on the  Pat Kenny Show yesterday.

For context, in January 2022, professor O;Neill, advisor to the Irish government, said it would be over by Paddy’s day. To be fair, he didn’t say which Paddy’s day.

A year on, having ditched all public health protections based on falsehoods (“it’s over/mild/flu), with 25% excess deaths in December (the highest since the pandemic began and fourth highest in the EU), hospitals understaffed/overcrowded and mortuaries running out of space for bodies, is O’Neill right this time? No.

Under the International Health Regulations, only the WHO has the legal authority to declare the pandemic over. Not POTUS and not King Canute O’Neill. The WHO recently declared the pandemic NOT over, reiterating that we’re very much still in the midst of a Public Health Emergency of International Concern: The highest alert level, stating otherwise arguably constitutes misinformation.

So, what was the basis for professor O’Neill’s declaration (this time)? In his words: "A very famous scientist Eric Topol, who is a real-world expert, announced the pandemic’s over – which is a great statement". 

 I checked professor Topol’s twitter timeline, finding no evidence that he said what professor O;Neill claimed he said so I messaged him directly. The gentleman that he is, he responded swiftly. I put professor O’Neill’s comments to Professor Topol & included the link for him to hear what was said in its entirety. He replied thus👇

"I NEVER said or wrote the pandemic is over. Here is what I wrote---that indicators are we are entering an endemic phase but there are still major issues that loom. In a follow up email he confirmed that Professor O’Neils portrayal of his position is “not true”.

 Eric Topol’s full paper can be found here👇

https://erictopol.substack.com/p/a-break-from-covid-waves-and-a-breakthrough

 Professor O’Neill also neglected to inform listeners of the concerns professor Topol outlined in the document

 “First, we sit at a very high baseline of daily Covid hospitalizations and deaths in the United States, over 25,000 and about 400, respectively. This is far beyond (double) where we were in June 2021, pre-Delta, when we got down to close to 10,000 hospitalizations and ~200 deaths per day. There’s still no shortage of circulating virus (currently XBB.1.5) getting people infected and some of the folks of advanced age and immunocompromised are the ones chiefly winding up with severe Covid. The virus is finding the vulnerable people more easily since their guard is let down, abandoning high-quality masks and other mitigations, and the low rate of keeping up with boosters in the last 6 months…… No less, the pervasive attitude is the pandemic is over, life goes on. That’s helping the virus find new or repeat hosts”.

Why did professor O’Neill not mention these concerns raised by professor Topol, especially given the “Hello Again World - is it yourself that’s in it” (I may have added some words…) video just launched. The campaign should be accompanied by a health warning: Some elderly people may be harmed by following this advice but it’s a price worth paying for the economy. It’s the greatest public health heist since Camels got doctors to endorse cigarettes with the slogan, “smoke your anxiety away”, except worse: It’s sponsored by Ireland’s Chief Medical Officer, Professor Breda Smyth".

(Update: By the end of March, hospitalisation had more than doubled and The Irish Times reported that we're entering another Covid surge. Incompetence, negligence, both?) 

It's ostensibly about loneliness but loneliness is a consequence of forced isolation due to uncontrolled spread of an immune dysregulating, multi-organ damaging, disabling, deadly disease. Solution? Clean indoor air making it safe for everyone to socialise. Using a Jaws analogy, instead of ridding the water of sharks so that everyone can swim safely, Professor Smyth is trying to convince us that shark attacks don’t matter anymore. 

I digress. Professor Topol has another concern….

“When 10 scientists who are following the pandemic and the virus evolution closely (including me) were recently asked what are the odds of another Omicron event in the next 2 years, the range was 5-30%, with no one thinking it is zero, and good convergence at the 10-20% level (unpublished data). And that’s in the 2-year window. SARS-CoV-2 will be with us for many years, so over time that likelihood forecast for a Pi new family of variants (and beyond Pi) increases. There are too many routes for us to see evolution of a Pi family of variants as shown in the graphic below. That is why we must prioritize development and validation of next generation vaccines that can achieve variant-proof protection (e.g. against all betacoronaviruses) and have improved defense against infection that can be accomplished via mucosal immunity with oral or nasal vaccines.

One of the unintended consequence of society buying the lie that the pandemic is over is that it has removed the political imperative to invest in sterilising nasal vaccines and clean indoor air. As well as ramping up resources for sterilising vaccines, we need to demand Davos safe public spaces. When the world’s leaders and billionaires met recently, access to delegates was contingent on a negative PCR test, fresh outside air was blasted in, enhanced by HEPA filters in every room and ffp2 masks made available. We need to demand the same standards of clean air for schools, nursing homes, hospitals and workplaces.

In the meantime, we can protect ourselves, our families and our communities by testing, wearing a well fitting ffp3/4 mask, doing as much as possible outdoors, ventilating and filtrating indoors, distancing and isolating when sick.  

 

I want to give the last words to some of the unheard voices who tweeted in response to the CMO's “Hello Again World" video👇💓

“Imagine losing the person you love most to a completely preventable transmissible disease like COVID-19. That could certainly cause immense loneliness.”

“Thanks, my elderly parents cannot go out and socialize because society is pretending COVID-19 is over and is not a lethal virus. They're put in jeopardy in every public space as people don't wear masks because of criminal negligence by public health officials”.

 “The denial will be deadly for many. I wish people understood death isn’t the worst possible Covid outcome. Surviving is a slow, lonely and unknown death, made infinitely worse by everyone “moving on”, attacking the ill and pretending it’s not happening, as yet more are disabled”.

 “Can I remind everyone that there are still people who have NO antibody response from vaccines. Remember those days pre-vaccine when we all felt the threat? That’s us. We may have underlying conditions but we are very much valuable and deserve a shot at longevity. We are mothers, fathers, neighbours, work colleagues. We are NOT irrational in our caution. We matter”

I wholeheartedly agree.

 With a background in mental health, I need to call out the way that rational fear is increasingly being pathologized, - often by mental health professionals, as weakness. Fear is a self-preserving emotion, enabling us to detect and react to hazards, crucial for survival. Fear & anxiety drive adaptive behaviours, aimed at escaping the source of danger. 

 

The Covid cautious people I know have the following in common: Emotional resilience (capable of resisting peer pressure), knowledge and compassion. They have the ability and strength to recognise and convert rational fear into seeking scientific facts and using them to adapt and survive. Fear avoidance, on the other hand, leads to denialism, i.e. denying reality in order to avoid a psychologically uncomfortable truth. Denialism is irrational. It involves the refusal to accept an empirically verifiable reality.

Former slave, Booker Washington said, “A lie doesn't become truth, wrong doesn't become right and evil doesn't become good, just because it's accepted by a majority". 

The truth is that Luke O;Neill was wrong - Again. The pandemic is not over. Sorry.

Oíche mhaith, codladh sámh

 Useful Resources:

 For anyone in Ireland (or visiting) who wants to socialise safely in the midst of a raging pandemic, you’ll get a Céad míle fáilte from Covid Cautious Ireland: https://www.facebook.com/groups/550424433171967/?ref=share

 For connecting with covid cautious people all over the world, Covid meet ups: CovidMeetups

Long Covid Advocacy Ireland: Long Covid Advocacy Ireland – THE VOICE FOR LONG COVID IN IRELAND

Long Covid Kids Ireland (Thanks to the legend, Sarah O'Connell💓): Long Covid Kids Rep.of Ireland 🇮🇪 (@LCKIreland) / Twitter