IOM Elections: It's time to put the women who know what they're doing in charge

 “Do you want to speak to the man in charge or the woman who knows what’s going on?” As global pandemic responses unfolded, it became apparent that female led countries fared best. As a result of Jacinda Ardern’s elimination strategy, New Zealand recorded less deaths by far (26) than any other developed country with the economy outperforming the OECD average.

I wanted to document what it’s like to live in a country where the person in charge was a woman who knew what she was doing. Unfortunately, New Zealand doesn’t count “wordsmith” as essential work, so I headed for the Isle of Man, where the man in charge had achieved similar results. The country, like New Zealand, had used its island status to eliminate Covid, allowing citizens to avoid prolonged lockdowns and live relatively normal lives.

Within weeks, I was running around the island bribing pharmacists (unsuccessfully) for LFTs. The single mother of a disabled child needed them because her other child caught Covid and she was too frightened to go out. She emailed me, a stranger she heard on the radio, because she didn’t know how to live with a virus capable of killing her child.

What went wrong? In June, Chief Minister, Howard Quayle, Health Minister, David Ashford and the Council of Ministers (CoMin), opened the borders too soon and in an inexplicable act of self harm, unleashed Delta, a highly transmissible, vaccine escaping variant, onto a Covid free island. Why? The economy, stupid. Except, by July, local businesses surveyed by the Chamber of Commerce reported an 80% reduction in income compared to the same time last year. Some described that period as 'the worst they've experienced during the pandemic'.

With no mitigations in place, Covid spread like wildfire collapsing the test and trace system. Hundreds were in isolation. Mr Ashford’s solution? Scrap isolation, which accelerated spread. The health system was hit with bed shortages, visitor restrictions and cancelled operations.

Why would the men in charge sabotage their own legacy?

Minutes from a Public Accounts Committee meeting published in August answered that question: It wasn’t their legacy. The committee took evidence from the Island’s Medical Director, turned reluctant whistle-blower, Dr Rosalind Ranson. She testified that Howard Quayle, David Ashford and Director of Public Health, Dr Ewart, were wedded to following UK strategy in March. Dr Ranson described her battle to adopt an island specific approach, a task reportedly thwarted by the Department for Health and Social Care’s CEO, Kathryn Magson who allegedly forbade Dr Ranson from liaising directly with ministers. Ms Magson gave medical briefings to the Council of Ministers (CoMin) herself, despite being unqualified (medically) to do so.  

 Newly appointed, Dr Ranson set up a Clinical Advisory Group with her top medics and assessed the risks posed by Covid, producing systems and protocols underpinned by clinical modelling. Based on that data, Dr Ranson identified the need to build on-island oxygen capability, requisitioning private beds and procuring fit for purpose PPE, achievements that Mr Quayle recently took credit for in UK media interviews. He also boasts about the island’s world-class test and trace system which was established from scratch by Island genomicist, Dr Rachel Glover, who was rewarded by being side-lined.

It’s noteworthy that the women who masterminded one of the world’s most successful pandemic responses have been ostracised by men who unashamedly claim their accomplishments as their own.

Based on her modelling, Dr Ranson knew that if the island blindly followed UK policy, which on 13th March involved not testing, the island’s one hospital would become overwhelmed. At that point Dr Ranson first advised Minister Ashford and Ms Magson to close the borders. On 16 March, Dr Ranson prepared a presentation for the Council of Ministers (CoMin) which she sent to Ms Magson to communicate, stressing the need for restrictions.

On 24 March, when asked at a presser why he hadn’t locked down, Mr Quayle replied, “We take advice from our medical experts”. Concerned, Dr Ranson asked Ms Magson if she had relayed her advice to Mr Quayle. She didn’t reply. That question must be answered but notwithstanding that, why didn’t Mr Quayle, Mr Ashford or CoMin solicit the advice of the highly qualified medical director directly? With the exception of Julie Edge (who was one of only 5 MHKs with the integrity & courage to vote against unmitigated border opening), why aren't MHKs clamouring for an investigation into this?

 On 25th March, Dr Ranson sent Ms Magson an email entitled ‘Lockdown now’. In it she urged Ms Magson to communicate the medical group’s advice: “lockdown in the strongest possible terms.’ Mr Quayle eventually locked down on March 27th. Had he acted sooner, avoidable deaths might have been averted.

 In January, Ms Magson informed Dr Ranson that the Manx government was following UK policy. The systems that Dr Ranson established were reportedly dismantled. Since then, ministers have taken Dr Ewart’s advice which appears to endorse the UK's reckless trajectory.

Before the borders opened, the average positivity rate was circa 0.31% of tests. The 3 day average now is around 11.43% despite significantly reduced testing and in mid-late July, the island had the highest incidence of Covid worldwide. Last week, Covid outbreaks occurred in a care home having previously loosened visitor restrictions. The “dodgy” dashboard numbers don’t tally, but piecing together information from various sources, an estimated 20 people have died from Covid since borders opened.

David Ashford suggested I represent the views of the Great Barrington Group (GBD): for “balance”. That’s like giving equal weight to climate change deniers when writing about global warming. It implies there’s no scientific consensus. There is. The GBD is a fringe group that has lobbied for “unscientific”, “unethical”, herd immunity through mass infection. The risk that COVID poses is not a matter of opinion, it’s a scientific fact.

 Anti-Vaxxers objected to my criticism of David Ashford and targeted me relentlessly with racist and misogynistic abuse. When one messaged, “I know where you live”, I knew he probably did, so on a misty Manx morning, I took the boat and left the beautiful island, tragically marred by political ineptitude and gross negligence.

 Thursday’s elections provide Manx citizens the chance to give self-aggrandising incompetent men their marching orders and to put the women who know what they’re doing in charge. Every vote counts. Aigh vie caarjyn